Tri-fecta of tropical systems in the Atlantic
In what continues to be a busy tropical season, we now have three named storms once again. Irma and Katia are gone, but now we have Jose, Lee and Maria. If there's a time of year to have this many storms, it's now. This is right around the peak for tropical season, which goes from June 1 to November 30 in the Atlantic Basin.
There's fairly good agreement that Jose will stay offshore, though producing increased rip currents on the east coast. As the upper levels interact with Jose, it will be steered east as a tropical storm. This could be more of an impact for the New England coastline next week, but is of no threat to us.
Lee is in the open Atlantic, west of the Cape Verde Islands. This storm has pretty much no chance of surviving across the ocean. We saw the long trek that Irma made from that region, but this does not look like a repeat. Maria may be one to watch.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Maria to become a major hurricane, moving through the Lesser Antilles prior to that as a Category 1. The fear is that this will move over areas hit hard already by Irma.
It is FAR too soon to tell whether or not this will have an impact on us. There's a reason why the National Hurricane Center a) issues forecasts only five days out and b) issues forecasts in a cone. That cone represents the uncertainty that lies in the forecast track. Beyond five days, you can see just how uncertain the forecast is. That's normal, especially given the fact that it's September and the upper levels of the atmosphere are acting up a bit more in the continental US. That tends to provide challenges in how these tropical storms will interact with the upper levels.
If there's anything we've learned from Irma and Matthew in 2016, it's that patience is a virtue. There's no need in us sounding the alarms ten days out for a storm's future that we don't know. We'll be sure to keep you updated on anything, as the storm track becomes more certain. In all honesty, that likely won't happen until late next week.